Time after Time: An Analysis on Time Served in Prison’s Effect on 3-Year Recidivism
Senior econometric research thesis completed at the United States Military Academy at West Point in collaboration with the U.S. Army Office of Economic and Manpower Analysis (OEMA).
Summary of the 2016 senior thesis authored by Cadet Mackenzie "Mack" Latimer at the United States Military Academy at West Point in collaboration with the U.S. Army Office of Economic and Manpower Analysis (OEMA), evaluating the marginal effect of incarceration length on three-year post-release recidivism rates using econometric identification strategies.
1. Research Question and Empirical Identification Challenge
Completed in May 2016 as the capstone requirement for a Bachelor of Science degree in Economics (Econometrics track) and American Politics at the United States Military Academy at West Point, this study examined a foundational question in the economics of crime and sentencing policy: how does the actual duration of time served in prison affect an offender’s probability of re-offending within three years of release?
Because offenders who receive and serve longer sentences systematically differ in offense severity, prior criminal history, and unobserved risk factors from those serving shorter terms, naive ordinary least squares (OLS) comparisons confound sentence length with baseline offender propensity. Working with researchers at the U.S. Army Office of Economic and Manpower Analysis (OEMA), the study structured econometric controls to isolate the marginal treatment effect of incarceration duration on three-year recidivism.
2. Academic Recognition at West Point
The thesis earned the highest senior thesis grade in Latimer’s class year at the United States Military Academy, where he graduated in May 2016 with major grade-point averages of 3.85 in Econometrics and 3.70 in American Politics before receiving his commission as an Infantry Officer in the United States Army.